Investing.com -- The betting market Polymarket is now pricing a 53% chance that Israel will launch military action against Iran before July, a significant jump from just 25% at the start of Wednesday. The sharp increase follows a series of developments in the Middle East that have heightened geopolitical uncertainty and triggered security responses from the United States.
On Wednesday, the U.S. State Department confirmed it is preparing for a partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq and authorizing military families and non-essential personnel to depart from select locations across the Middle East. The moves reflect growing concerns about potential regional escalation, particularly involving Iran and its adversaries.
President Donald Trump added to the uncertainty during a press appearance Wednesday evening, stating that U.S. personnel were being repositioned because “it could be a dangerous place.” He reaffirmed that the United States will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, a stance that has underpinned recent tensions with Tehran.
When asked directly on Thursday about whether an Israeli strike on Iran was imminent, Trump was measured but ominous: “I don’t want to say imminent, but it looks like it’s something that could very well happen.” He emphasized the U.S. position that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” while also stating, “Other than that, I want them to be successful… we’ll help them be successful, we’ll trade with them.”
The betting market’s reaction reflects the broader mood of volatility in the region and uncertainty over how close the two adversaries may be to open conflict. Analysts say that Polymarket, which aggregates sentiment from decentralized traders, can act as a real-time barometer of geopolitical risk. A 28-point spike in less than 24 hours suggests that traders believe recent U.S. and Israeli statements, coupled with military repositioning, are strong signals that tensions may soon erupt into action.
Crude Oil WTI Futures futures are trading near two-month highs amid heightened tensions.
While there is no official confirmation of planned Israeli strikes, the White House’s evacuation orders and Trump’s comments suggest preparations are being made for a potential escalation. With just weeks left until July, all eyes are now on Tel Aviv and Tehran for what may come next.