Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.
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Jefferies trims numbers on Apple but upgrades the stock after pullback
Jefferies has upgraded Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) to Hold from Underperform, citing a more favorable entry point after the stock’s recent pullback.
But at the same time, the brokerage lowered its price target to $167.88 from $202.33 and cut estimates on iPhone shipments, revenue, and earnings per share (EPS) through fiscal year 2027 (FY27), reflecting mounting concerns about a potential global recession and a less robust AI outlook.
Jefferies reduced iPhone shipment forecasts by 3.6%, 7.7%, and 5.5% for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, while revenue estimates were trimmed by up to 4.1% and EPS projections now sit below consensus by as much as 8.5%.
“Our base case remains that AAPL would be exempted from U.S. tariffs, given its commitment to invest $500bn in the U.S. over the next four years, and our belief that it would make additional manufacturing investment commitment in the U.S. (to make iPhone, for example),” said analysts led by Edison Lee.
Still, they caution that “a rising risk of global recession could further impact already-weak iPhone demand.”
Jefferies expects Apple to raise prices on upcoming models due to higher component costs, forecasting a $50 increase for the iPhone 18 (excluding the base model) and a $100 increase for all iPhone 19 variants.
The analysts also lowered long-term AI revenue assumptions, pointing to challenges that include “a lack of fast DRAM and advanced packaging solutions, which limits the AI model size” and the fact that app data access is constrained.
“We believe the hardware needed to run bigger AI models on smartphones will be commercialized in 2027, and we assume AAPL will be the first smartphone OEM to adopt that (iPhone 19),” they said.
But they added that reluctance from companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:META) to share data is a more structural challenge.
As a result, AI revenue expectations starting in FY28 have been adjusted lower by reducing the install base scope and cutting the anticipated penetration rates to 20%-50%, down from previous assumptions of 50%-75%.
While the rating has been lifted, Jefferies noted that Apple’s valuation remains stretched, highlighting its 2.2x PEG ratio for FY25.
Analyst slashes Nvidia, Marvell estimates on uncertain macro outlook
Citi has lowered its earnings and revenue forecasts for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Marvell Technology this week, pointing to reduced expectations for cloud capital spending and continued macroeconomic uncertainty driven by trade tensions.
For Nvidia, the bank trimmed its GPU unit forecasts by 3% for calendar year 2025 (CY25) and 5% for 2026, reflecting a downshift in hyperscaler capex growth projections to +35% and +15%, respectively.
Citi attributed the revisions to “mostly lower Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) capex concerns and higher risk of pause in enterprise investments amid uncertainty around the global economy due to ongoing trade war.”
As a result, Nvidia’s EPS estimates were reduced by 3% for CY25 and 6% for CY26. The price target was also cut to $150 from $163. However, Citi said Nvidia’s dominant market position and pricing strength could soften the impact.
“Given its technology leadership and AI GPU price in-elasticity,” the company is expected to “partially pass down the increased GPU cost that may emanate from the trade war,” analyst Atif Malik wrote.
Marvell was similarly affected by the outlook for Microsoft’s capex and shifts in AI demand. Citi reduced its FY27 revenue and EPS forecasts for the company by 5% and 8%, respectively.
A key factor was a 20% reduction in expectations for AI ASIC revenue, alongside lower AI optics forecasts tied to Nvidia’s GPU volumes.
The bank slashed its price target on Marvell to $96 from $122. “Our AI ASIC cuts reflect our concerns that C2026 trainium volumes may be below our prior expectations as the company may not be the only ASIC provider for the future trainium products,” Malik wrote.
Still, the analyst noted that with the stock trading back at its pre-custom ASIC run levels and at a P/E of 13x, the bad news “is largely priced in.”
Citi maintained Buy ratings on both stocks, underpinned by a more constructive long-term view.
Unlikely that ‘anything in our coverage will be immune from tariff-related demand destruction’: UBS
UBS analysts said it's unlikely that “anything in our coverage will be immune from tariff-related demand destruction.” However, they expect AI-related spending to hold up despite broader headwinds.
The bank believes the current environment could even accelerate enterprise AI adoption as firms look to cut costs.
“We would be even more laser-focused on AI-driven stocks like NVDA and AVGO – companies that also have dominant franchisees with pricing power,” they wrote.
Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) also stands out to UBS, thanks to its substantial U.S. manufacturing base.
While maintaining a cautious stance on semiconductor production equipment stocks, the analysts highlighted Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) as a name worth considering on the recent pullback, citing relative underperformance and an increasingly compelling valuation.
UBS also screened its coverage against 10-year historical price-to-book multiples. Stocks like KLA Corp, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), and Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) still appear expensive, trading above the median range relative to the S&P 500.
In contrast, Microchip Technology (NASDAQ:MCHP), Entegris (NASDAQ:ENTG), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), and Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) currently look undervalued on a long-term basis.
Citi names TXN, ADI as top semiconductor picks amid recession fears
In a separate note, Citi said it expects semiconductor firms to deliver relatively solid guidance for the first quarter, but warns that more meaningful estimate reductions are likely as the quarter progresses.
The bank sees average EPS declines of around 10% during the Q1 season, with further downside expected later this year as companies begin to fully feel the effects of steep tariffs.
Led by analyst Christopher Danely, Citi analysts have already lowered earnings estimates across their semiconductor coverage by 20% on average, citing a high probability of a tariff-induced recession.
“We believe the companies most at risk are low-margin stocks,” the analysts wrote, singling out ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON), Micron (NASDAQ:MU), and GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) as particularly vulnerable.
In contrast, Citi prefers analog semiconductor names that tend to outperform during economic downturns. Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) and Texas Instruments now top the firm’s list of Buy-rated stocks.
Broadcom ranks as a third favorite, with analysts noting its guidance is expected “to be cut less than average.”
Despite the macro risks, inventory conditions in the sector are seen as relatively favorable. Citi points to the decline in semi units over the past three years as evidence of lean inventories, which could help cushion the downturn and fuel a recovery once uncertainty eases.
“We believe the analog space should be relatively resilient in the event of a recession, given healthier inventory dynamics,” the analysts said.
Macquarie lifts Atlassian after agentic AI feature launch
On Thursday, Macquarie analyst Steve Koenig upgraded Atlassian Corp (NASDAQ:TEAM) to Outperform from Neutral and set the price target to $270, citing stronger revenue potential and a more attractive valuation.
Following the company’s TEAM '25 conference, Koenig highlighted the launch of Teamwork Collection—a new cloud bundle that integrates Jira, Confluence, Loom, and Rovo agents.
The bundle uses agentic AI to recommend and execute workflow tasks, a move seen as aligning with Atlassian’s strategy to broaden its reach beyond DevOps into more nontechnical functions.
Koenig noted that upcoming 15–25% price increases on Data Center renewals could support earnings upside versus conservative FY25 guidance.
He also sees longer-term momentum in Atlassian’s strategy to expand usage across customer departments, from development to HR and service management.
“We now see a better entry point for TEAM shares,” he wrote, pointing out that Atlassian’s valuation metrics—particularly EV/revenue and EV/FCF—are now more aligned with peers, after historically trading at a premium.